Middle Tennessee

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	33.0
Current RPI:	33
Expected SOS:	90
Current SOS:	90
Current Record:	23-7
Expected Record:	23-7
Current Conf Record:	16-3
Expected Conf Record:	16-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	25
Expected OOC SOS:	10

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-7	33.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Middle Tennessee.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	67-72	W	100%
11-16	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	63-69	L	0%
11-18	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	65-75	W	100%
11-21	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	85-72	W	100%
12-2	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	76-81	W	100%
12-6	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	63-66	W	100%
12-9	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	H	77-58	W	100%
12-16	Auburn (15.0)	SEC	N	76-70	L	0%
12-22	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	N	67-69	W	100%
12-23	USC (34.0)	P12	N	89-84	L	0%
12-25	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	N	84-81	L	0%
12-30	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	60-63	W	100%
1-4	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	66-71	W	100%
1-6	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	57-61	W	100%
1-11	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	72-57	W	100%
1-13	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	69-49	W	100%
1-18	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	73-63	L	0%
1-20	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	62-66	W	100%
1-25	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	75-51	W	100%
1-27	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	81-50	W	100%
2-1	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	59-66	W	100%
2-3	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	73-78	W	100%
2-8	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	94-75	W	100%
2-10	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	79-73	W	100%
2-15	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	62-72	W	100%
2-17	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	70-87	W	100%
2-24	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	79-54	W	100%
3-1	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	82-64	W	100%
3-3	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	67-76	L	0%
3-8	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	N	68-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Middle Tennessee's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Middle Tennessee's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Middle Tennessee.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	26.24	26.24	76.28	76.28	13.79	13.79
Southern Miss	CUSA	5.68	5.68	40.74	40.74	-1.05	-1.05
UAB	CUSA	4.14	4.14	62.07	62.07	1.00	1.00
Marshall	CUSA	4.12	4.12	67.74	67.74	1.46	1.46
Western Kentucky	CUSA	4.12	4.12	74.19	74.19	1.99	1.99
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	4.04	4.04	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	3.39	3.39	68.97	68.97	1.29	1.29
UTSA	CUSA	2.46	2.46	55.17	55.17	0.25	0.25
Old Dominion	CUSA	2.45	2.45	80.65	80.65	1.50	1.50
FIU	CUSA	2.44	2.44	39.29	39.29	-0.52	-0.52
UTEP	CUSA	2.41	2.41	34.48	34.48	-0.75	-0.75
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.40	2.40	33.33	33.33	-0.80	-0.80
North Texas	CUSA	2.35	2.35	44.83	44.83	-0.24	-0.24
Charlotte	CUSA	2.34	2.34	18.52	18.52	-1.47	-1.47
Rice	CUSA	2.32	2.32	17.86	17.86	-1.49	-1.49
Belmont	OVC	1.86	1.86	71.88	71.88	0.81	0.81
Auburn	SEC	1.83	1.83	77.42	77.42	1.00	1.00
Mississippi	SEC	1.77	1.77	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Murray St.	OVC	1.77	1.77	85.71	85.71	1.27	1.27
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.77	1.77	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.75	1.75	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
USC	P12	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Princeton	Ivy	1.72	1.72	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Miami FL	ACC	1.70	1.70	70.00	70.00	0.68	0.68
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.29	0.29	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Lipscomb	ASun	0.24	0.24	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
North Florida	ASun	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	22.22	22.22	-0.11	-0.11
South Carolina	SEC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.18	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Jacksonville	ASun	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	10.71	10.71	-0.13	-0.13
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01